Bye-bye baby-kissing and rallies: Coronavirus poised to upend traditional campaigning

Advertising instead of arenas and text messaging instead of door knocking; this is the very near future of a 2020 campaign under the cloud of the coronavirus.

Veteran political operatives in both parties predict the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, to force candidates up and down the ticket and their grassroots supporters to suspend typical, in-person campaigning. Out: rallies, town hall meetings, and a staple of tried-and-true get-out-the-vote activities. In: virtual campaigning — appeals that rely on advertising across television and digital platforms and electronic communications fueled by old-fashioned telephone calls and smartphone apps.

"Prepare for a POTUS campaign in which, for a month or two at least, there will be few if any events with large numbers of people," tweeted Dana Houle, a Democratic operative in the Midwest. "Campaigns may be TV/digital/mail/texting/phones & little else."

The spread of the coronavirus has sparked the cancellation of big-crowd events such as South by Southwest in Austin, Texas, while pushing several corporations to cancel conferences and nonessential travel. The major professional sports leagues in the United States, as well as the National Collegiate Athletic Association, are preparing contingency plans for playing games without fans in attendance. Some members of Congress who might have been exposed have quarantined themselves.

On Monday, President Trump maintained his schedule of fundraisers in Florida. Meanwhile, ahead of critical primaries on Tuesday, Democratic presidential contenders Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden and their prominent supporters fanned out across key states, especially Michigan. But, late Tuesday afternoon, the Sanders and Biden campaigns both canceled evening rallies in Ohio amid concerns about contributing to the proliferation of the coronavirus.

Democratic and Republican operatives advising the various campaigns are grappling with how aggressively to respond.

"I think the coronavirus will absolutely force campaigns to eventually pull back on public events," said a Republican consultant for a GOP congressional candidate. "But I think the public will understand. We're just at the tip of the iceberg, right now. The impact will drive campaigns to spend more on digital, television, and probably mail. That's voter contact without the actual physical contact."

The extent to which campaigning relies on person-to-person contact is often underappreciated. To be sure, much of it is the familiar photo-op staged for public consumption that is likely to be significantly curtailed. "There's going to be a lot less baby-kissing and very little handshaking," said a Republican strategist counseling several 2020 candidates. But the impact of the coronavirus on campaigns is expected to be greater than what is readily visible.

Eliminating public events means canceled or delayed fundraisers, which could reduce access to resources, which in turn could affect a campaign's ability to finance the advertising that is supposed to replace campaign rallies. In terms of voter turnout, campaigns could be compelled to dial back door-to-door canvassing, generally believed to be the most effective way to persuade and motivate. All campaigns, regardless of party, could take a hit.

However, Trump could be particularly affected. The president attracts overflow crowds in the tens of thousands to his campaign rallies, consistently filling major arenas. These "Keep America Great" events are the linchpin of his campaign strategy for reaching new voters, motivating existing supporters, and driving his message in targeted, electoral battlegrounds.

"It would hurt to not have the rallies, especially if the virus returns, say, late September and early October following a relative dormant period over the summer," a Republican pollster said, speculating that Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale was developing contingency plans.

"I have no idea what Brad is cooking up, but I guarantee he is thinking about it," the GOP insider said. "There are aggressive plans to court the African American vote that could also be hampered if people don't want to come out and play or work."

As an alternative, the Trump campaign could lean on its new Army for Trump website designed to allow supporters to boost the president's reelection bid remotely. An app that allows for ease of use with smartphones is on the way. So far, the Trump campaign has canceled a "Women for Trump" bus tour through the Midwest while first lady Melania Trump has canceled a California fundraiser that had been scheduled for next week.

Both moves have been attributed to scheduling conflicts. In a series of tweets over the past few days, Trump has signaled that he has no intention of adjusting his campaign strategy in reaction to the coronavirus, although there are currently no campaign rallies on his schedule.

"The campaign is proceeding normally," Trump campaign spokeswoman Erin Perrine said.